Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

285
FXUS63 KJKL 041407 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1007 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Following morning showers and a few storms, temperatures trend
  warmer today and Tuesday with highs from 75 to 80F on gusty
  south to southwest winds.

- Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms will arrive Tuesday
  night and last through Thursday morning. Beneficial rainfall
  amounts of 0.75 to 1.75 inches are expected.

- Cooler, below-normal temperatures settle in for the second half
  of the week, along with periodic low chances for showers
  heading into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026

Late night to around dawn convection is departing into VA, while
some convection in Central KY is moving southeast toward the
region in advance of a disturbance. This next area of convection
should move across northern and eastern sections of the area
through early afternoon. Thereafter, a decrease in clouds and
milder temperatures should prevail on southwest winds that may
gust as high as 20 to 25 mph. Overall, hourly grids were
freshened up based on observation and radar trends.

UPDATE Issued at 755 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026

An area of showers with some embedded thunder continues to track WNW-
ESE across the heart of eastern Kentucky this morning. Another
round of showers and embedded thunder is noted upstream of
Louisville as well. Generally expect this corridor of shower
activity to gradually shift northward with time, eventually north
of the Mtn. Pkwy, by 18Z and the entire CWA by 20Z. Aside from
blending the latest hi-res guidance into the hourly PoPs, the
current forecast remains in good shape through the remainder of
the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 407 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026

Variable cloud cover is noted across eastern Kentucky early this
morning with much milder temperatures than 24 hours ago (mid 40s to
mid 50s vs. yesterday mornings 30s). Regional radar imagery shows
isolated shower activity (mainly light) moving in from the west
northwest. Looking aloft, the forcing mechanism for this activity
appears to be multiple weak shortwave disturbances riding
southeast within a broad mean trough over much of the continent
east of the Rockies and interacting with ongoing low-level WAA
over the Lower Ohio Valley. Further upstream, a potent 500 hPa
vorticity lobe is dropping southward into the Northern Plains from
the Canadian Prairies while a closed upper level low deepens over
Northwest Ontario, nearly concurrent with a sub-990 mb surface
low. This system is attended by a potent cold front, presently
draped from northeast Minnesota across northern South Dakota and
then across Montana to the Rocky Mountains.

Once the aforementioned shortwave disturbances cross the Ohio Valley
and depart by midday along with associated weak convection, weak
height rises will follow and should keep any afternoon rain
chances limited and mainly confined to far northern counties or
even north of the JKL CWA entirely. Meanwhile, the aforementioned
upper low over northern Ontario will deepen slightly as it rotates
eastward, eventually passing over James Bay toward the end of the
short-term period. This will maintain a deep surface low tracking
from northwest Ontario into Central Quebec while its trailing
cold front trudges southeastward toward the Ohio Valley before
slowing to near a stall by Tuesday evening. Shower and
thunderstorm chances make a slow return to the eastern Kentucky
forecast Tuesday afternoon and evening but appreciable widespread
rainfall is not expected until Tuesday night and Wednesday.

In sensible weather terms, look for partly to mostly cloudy skies
this morning with scattered to isolated showers (possibly with a
rumble of thunder) to give way to increasing sunshine this afternoon.
It will be warmer and breezy with high temperatures of 75F to 80F
while southwesterly winds gust to between 15 and 25 mph during the
late morning and afternoon. Partly cloudy skies follow for tonight
with lows ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s in sheltered
eastern valleys to the mid and upper 50s near Lake Cumberland,
over the Bluegrass, and atop thermal belt ridges. Sunshine on
Tuesday morning will then fade to increasing clouds and rising
shower chances (possibly a thunderstorm) during the afternoon and
evening. Temperatures will be similar to today, topping out in the
75F to 80F range for most locations while the southwesterly
breeze will be of a similar strength as well.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 418 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026

The period begins Tuesday evening with a cold front situated from
western PA through central and southwest OH and continued
southwest into the Arkansas, with the nose of a mid-level jet
streak and progressive shortwave (embedded with in a primary
parent trough) moving toward eastern Kentucky. There is high
confidence that widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur as
this shortwave and jet energy crosses the area overnight into
Wednesday, pushing the cold front to over or just south and east
of the JKL CWA by Wednesday evening. This is followed by another
shortwave and surface low riding along the front through the
Tennessee and Cumberland Valleys. This will bring another round
of showers and thunderstorms primarily over southern and eastern
Kentucky Wednesday night into Thursday.

Model spread for QPF across the forecast area continues to decline,
primarily due to a continued reduction in higher-end amounts across
the south, with the entire CWA now depicted between 1.00 and 1.75
inches, highest along the tier of counties bordering Tennessee.

Shower activity gradually winds down in the south and east the
second half of Thursday as surface high pressure moves into the
area. This dry window will be short-lived, as additional
perturbations within persistent mean troughing aloft are progged
to dive southeast toward the Commonwealth, bringing low chances
for showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, for the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026

VFR conditions will largely prevail through Tuesday morning. Mid-
level cloud cover and associated ongoing scattered convection
associated with a disturbance will diminish from southwest to
northeast through 17Z. These will continue to be covered by
PROB30 groups in the TAFs for when probabilties of showers or a
stray storm and potential MVFR reductions are highest. Gusty
southwest winds of 18 to 23 kts are then expected at most if not
all sites from late this morning through the afternoon hours. Wind
at the surface will slacken this evening but a renewed low-level
jet may be marginally strong enough for mentionable LLWS
overnight. Later TAF issuances will need to monitor for this
potential concern.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GEERTSON