Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

139
FXUS63 KJKL 020455
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1155 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very cold weather will finish out the weekend, followed by a
  moderation during the workweek.

- Most of the area can expect some rain and snow beginning Tuesday
  and lasting into early Wednesday, with minor snow accumulations
  possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 931 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026

High pressure is firmly in place over eastern Kentucky late this
evening. Temperatures are already dropping through the single
digits in the cooler valleys and low to mid 10s most other places.
Overnight lows for tonight were lowered to between 0 and 5 above
in most valleys with some low single digits below zero in the
coldest hollows.

UPDATE Issued at 625 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026

Quiet and cold conditions remain in place across eastern Kentucky
as the sun sets. The current forecast for the overnight appears
to be largely on track -- only a few adjustments to the hourly sky
and temperature forecasts to bring those variables in line with
observations/model trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 340 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026

A quiet short term period is in store. Generally northwest flow
aloft will prevail over us through Monday as the trough axis
associated with the recent southeast CONUS system moves offshore.
Meanwhile, surface ridging is building in from the west and will
pass over tonight. The combination will result in mainly clear
skies and light winds, with warm air advection returning tonight.
The good radiating conditions and modest warm air advection should
result in some ridge/valley temperature differences. It will be
interesting to see how far valleys can fall, with snow/ice on the
ground favoring cold temps.

Isentropic lift on the warm air advection in combination with a
minor upper level wave moving southeast will give us increasing
low-mid level clouds toward dawn and a fair amount of clouds
during the day Monday. If the surface can moisten up sufficiently
(most likely in our north), would not rule out some very light
precipitation. Temperatures look marginal for ice generation in
the DGZ, so there is also some question as to whether snow could
form. At this point, have only used a slight chance of flurries
where precip is mentioned (which is everywhere except near the TN
border).

The deeper moisture is expected to fade and shift eastward along
with the upper level wave on Monday afternoon. However, low level
moisture will probably linger in the warm air advection and keep
clouds around, especially over our northeast counties. This
scenario lasts into Monday night. At that time, another upper
level wave drops southeast, this time further west over the
Midwest and southern plains. Surface low pressure develops well to
our west in response to this and strengthens warm air advection.
Along with the approaching upper trough, this should result in
more clouds, including further southwest as upper level moisture
increases. However, it would appear that precip holds off until
Tuesday in the long term period.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 438 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026

An amplified long wave pattern will continue across the CONUS
through the rest of the week, with persistent troughing seen east of
the Mississippi River, while ridging is generally maintained along
and west of the Rockies. This will keep the Ohio and Tennessee
valleys in northwest flow aloft through the majority of the time.
Model agreement is good through the middle of next week, with
typical differences growing with time as we head into the latter
portion of next week.

A developing short wave trough will push east from the central
Conus through the Appalachians Tuesday into Wednesday. At the
surface, a baroclinic zone will tighten up in response to this,
with low pressure forming along the frontal zone, especially seen
in the Tennessee Valley and portions of the Deep South. Clouds
will be on the increase Tuesday across eastern Kentucky, with
light precipitation breaking out in the form of mainly rain by
the mid to late afternoon hours, as low level warm air advection
increases out ahead of the approaching system. Highs will range
from the upper 30s north of I-64, to the mid 40s for valleys
bordering Tennessee. The precipitation could be more of a mix of
rain and snow north of the Mountain Parkway, depending upon the
resilience of the cold air. Still, an overall warmer trend has
been seen in the guidance for these northern locations, so do not
expect much impact on the evening commute at this time.

Precipitation will change over to snow from northwest to southeast
Tuesday night. A snowy changeover will also occur quicker across
our highest elevations bordering Virginia. Some minor accumulations
will be possible, but generally less than an inch at this point
for most locales. The exception will be Black Mountain, where a
couple of inches will be possible. This may result in some minor
impact on the Wednesday morning commute, especially for locations
along and north of the Mountain Parkway and for elevations greater
than 2500 feet, where colder air will have a longer residence
time. A few snow showers will linger into Wednesday, especially
favored in our southeast, as a reinforcing short wave trough moves
through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. This will result in
around a 10 degree drop in high temperatures compared to Tuesday.

The reinforcing shot of colder air that follows will not be as
stout as what we have just seen this past week, with lows back
into 10 to 15 degree range Wednesday night, and highs in the 20s
and 30s for Thursday. Highs will return to mostly the 40s again
by Friday. A passing northern stream short wave trough and surface
cold front will bring another chance of rain/snow to the area
through Friday night, but liquid equivalents look to be light,
generally a tenth of an inch or less, and likely more confined to
east of KY-15. A colder and drier weekend is in store, with lows
back into the teens. Highs will modify from the 20s and 30s on
Saturday, to the 30s and 40s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026

VFR conditions under clear skies were reported across eastern
Kentucky at TAF issuance. A weak disturbance will spread lowering
ceilings back across eastern Kentucky late tonight and during the
day on Monday. Winds will be variable to southwesterly at less
than 10 kts through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...GEERTSON